Realistically, if you have a good firewall, you are MOSTLY safe. Websites specifically designed to target your OS could exist though. You are at risk, but the level of risk is dependent on your usage. (Also, please have a firewall or you are at extreme risk). Antivirus tools will help after the fact.
Think of it this way (yay analogies)
Your computer is a home with windows and doors. Sometimes hackers can figure out how to unlock those doors and windows. The OS updates put new locks on them. Also close new ways hackers come in (like breaking the windows or cutting a hole through the ventilation). OS updates help block these methods as well. Without OS updates, you are left with only have the guard dog left (antivirus). While the dog can help here, some of them will kill the dog, some of them will be able to sneak past the dog.